I think that despite polls which might show the presidential race to be close, the "North Carolina Effect" will rule the day and Barack Obama will be defeated.
The North Carolina Effect, evidenced in that state's recent election which squarely rejected homosexual marriage despite poll results indicating the vote would be close, is the tendency of people publicly to support a trendy cause but in fact to vote conservatively in the privacy of the polling booth.
Nobody wants to look like a homophobe. But in the eyes of the politically correct, it is not enough to tolerate alternate lifestyles, we must pretend that they are normal and call relationships within them something they are not, like "marriage". The queer extremists have cast the homosexual marriage issue as a hate issue. So those in the middle who want not to offend will publicly say they support homosexual marriage, even to a pollster, but when only their conscience is their guide and it really counts, they will vote for common sense.
There are a whole lot of people in the middle of the electorate who are not crazy about Mitt Romney. That he is a Mormon and that he is a fierce competitor, a capitalist star, makes them vaguely uncomfortable. But they know that Romney is someone who truly understands and is loyal to what made America great, and that he can make things happen to turn our economy around and restore our standing as a beacon of liberty to the world at large.
These folks in the middle like Obama's cool image, but they are embarrassed to admit they made a mistake in supporting him and embarrassed to support a square like Mitt Romney. And they are certainly scared to admit that they will vote against Obama in November for fear of appearing racist, just as those who vote against homosexual marriage are afraid of being called homophobes.
But they will vote against Obama this November. This North Carolina Effect will be Barack Obama's undoing.